[NEWS] - ADB changes GDP growth forecast for Southeast Asia. How is Vietnam’s GDP growth evaluated compared to Thailand and Indonesia?

Recently, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) published the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report, with forecasts that in the context of weak demand for export products, growth prospects for Southeast Asia in 2023 have decreased from 4.6% to 4.3%.

The Asian Development Bank has raised its economic forecast for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific after strong domestic demand fueled higher-than-expected growth in the People’s Republic of China. Chinese (Chinese) and Indian people.

According to the recently released December 2023 Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report, the Asia-Pacific region’s economy is expected to grow by 4.9% this year, compared to the forecast of 4.7% forecast that was announced in September. The growth forecast for next year is maintained at 4.8%.

China’s economy is forecast to grow 5.2% in 2023, compared to the previous forecast of 4.9%, after household consumption and public investment boosted growth in the third quarter. India’s growth outlook was raised from 6.3% to 6.7% after faster-than-expected growth in the July-September period, helped by double-digit growth in the industrial sector. Increased growth in China and India more than offsets the forecast decline in Southeast Asia, due to tepid manufacturing activity.

ADB Chief Economist Albert Park commented: "Developing economies in Asia continue to grow at a strong pace, despite the challenging global environment. Inflation in the region The region is also gradually being brought under control. However, risks remain, from rising global interest rates to climate phenomena like El Niño. Therefore, governments in the Asia and Pacific region Duong must always be vigilant to ensure the economy can adapt and grow sustainably."

According to the ADO report, the region’s inflation forecast this year has decreased from the previous 3.6% to 3.5%. For 2024, inflation is expected to increase to 3.6%, compared to the previous forecast of 3.5%.

Particularly for Southeast Asia, the report assesses that, in the context of weak demand for export products, the growth prospects for Southeast Asia in 2023 have decreased from 4.6% to the remaining 4.3%.

Considering each specific economy, according to ADB, Vietnam’s growth in 2023 has decreased to 5.2% compared to the previous forecast of 5.8%, while growth in 2024 is forecast to remain the same. maintained at 6.0%. ADB explained that the weaker-than-expected recovery in external demand continues to hinder industrial and service growth, slowing the recovery of employment and domestic consumption.

Prudent and proactive monetary policy, supported by effective control of gasoline, electricity, food, health care, and education prices, will help control inflation. Inflation forecast in Vietnam is maintained at 3.8% for 2023 and 4.0% for 2024.

Besides Vietnam, ADB also adjusted forecasts for Malaysia and Thailand. Specifically, Malaysia’s growth forecast for 2023 has decreased to 4.2% compared to the previous forecast of 4.5%, while Thailand’s GDP growth has decreased to 2.5% compared to the previous forecast. with the previous forecast of 3.5%.

Thus, based on ADB’s latest forecast data on Southeast Asia’s economic growth, with a forecast of 5.2%, Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2023 will rank second in the Southeast region. South Asia, after the Philippines (5.7%).

Thanh Long (Collection source)