[NEWS] - Export coffee price reached 3,151 USD/ton, continuing to set a record

The average export coffee price in the first half of September 2023 continued to increase, reaching 3,151 USD/ton, up 6.3% compared to the first half of August 2023 and 32.1% over the same period.

According to the latest data from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first half of September 2023 are estimated to decrease sharply by 35% compared to the first half of August 2023, reaching 24,362 tons, and compared to the same period in 2022 decreased by 39%. Coffee export turnover in the first half of September is estimated to reach 76.76 million USD, down 30.8% compared to the first half of August 2023, and down 19.4% over the same period in 2022.

Vietnam’s coffee reserves are currently very small and it is estimated that this year’s coffee output may decrease significantly, reaching the lowest level in the past 4 years. This has led to a situation where even though green coffee prices are at a 30-year high, there is very little transaction, and coffee export activities are limited.

According to the leader of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA), recently, many gardeners have switched from growing coffee to growing fruit trees. In addition, intensive coffee gardens are now also intercropped with durian trees, causing our country’s coffee output to decline. It is estimated that this year’s coffee output decreased by 10-15% due to unfavorable weather. At the same time, due to very little inventory, the amount of coffee exported from August to October may decrease compared to the same period last year, until the market has a supply of coffee from the new harvest, the leader said. VICOFA said.

Accumulated from the beginning of the year to mid-September 2023, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 1.22 million tons, down 6.4% in volume but turnover reached 3.04 billion USD, up 2.3% compared to the same period last year.

Although export volume decreased sharply, the average export coffee price in the first half of September 2023 continued to increase, reaching 3,151 USD/ton, an increase of 6.3% compared to the first half of August 2023, and an increase of 32,000 USD/ton. 1% over the same period last year.

On world market exchanges, statistics from the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), at the end of the trading week from September 18 to 24, Arabica coffee prices led the group’s decline, losing 5 points. .03% compared to a reference, followed by a decrease in Robusta price of 3.73%. During the week, Arabica witnessed 3/5 sessions in the red, Robusta recorded 4/5 sessions. Increased supply in Brazil and improvement in inventory at the ICE Department have created dual pressure on prices.

As of September 18, Brazilian farmers had sold 50% of the 2023/24 coffee crop, according to consulting firm Sfras&Mercado. Coffee experts in Brazil also predict that coffee export activities will continue to be boosted until the end of November and August is not the month with the highest amount of coffee exported.

In the third crop survey report, the Brazilian government’s Crop Supply Agency estimated that the country’s coffee output in 2023 will reach 54.74 million bags, an increase of 6.8% over the year. In 2022, the increase will mainly come from Arabica, 16.6% higher than last year.

In addition, the contrast in monetary policy direction in the US and Brazil is boosting sales demand from Brazilian farmers. Specifically, the USD/Brazil Real exchange rate increased by 1.41% last week when the US Federal Reserve signaled that it will continue to pursue a tightening monetary policy into 2024 and may increase interest rates one more time. interest rates in 2023, while the Central Bank of Brazil said there will be 3 interest rate cuts.

Robusta inventory on the ICE-EU Department increased by 4,210 tons in the past week, while Arabica inventory on the ICE-US Department remains volatile, with 15,391 bags still waiting to be classified for replenishment.

MXV said this week, the market’s attention returned to inventory data on the Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (ICE). Inventories of Robusta and Arabica are both improving and will be an important factor affecting price movements in the context of Brazil’s exports being boosted.

On the domestic market, recorded at the end of last week, the price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces decreased slightly by 200 VND/kg compared to the previous day, down to 66,100 - 66,800 VND/kg. Compared to a week earlier, the price of domestically purchased coffee has dropped sharply by 800 - 1,100 VND/kg. However, this is still a very high price for Vietnamese coffee.

Hoang Yen (Collection source)