[NEWS] – Prospects of investment channels in 2023

In 2023, Vietnam’s economy is forecasted to continue to face many difficulties, when up to one-third of the world’s economy may decline this year and next year; Global GDP will grow only about 2.2 - 2.5% in 2023.

Prospect of investment channels in 2023

It is forecasted that 2023 will be a year with many challenges for the Vietnamese economy, from external fluctuations (Russia-Ukraine conflict, the energy crisis in Europe, some economies falling into a slight recession. China’s economy is still growing slowly, financial-monetary risks are still high...), stocks, real estate need time to overcome; climate change effects...). Therefore, BIDV Research & Training Institute forecasts that Vietnam’s economy can grow by 6-6.5% in 2023 according to the base scenario (compared to 8% in 2022). Inflation will also be higher, average CPI is forecasted to increase by 4-4.5%.

For Bank Savings Deposit channel:

Savings deposits, in the context of the economy facing many uncertainties, will be an investment channel worth considering. Along with that, the FED is forecasted to continue to raise interest rates until the end of the first quarter of 2023, thereby affecting the interest rate level in Vietnam for the whole next year (due to a delay); Inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate pressures still exist, which will make deposit interest rates likely to remain high in 2023. This is a positive point for investors, but also a positive point for investors. may cause capital flows to other investment channels to be affected, reduce liquidity, and may cause a downward spiral in stocks, bonds, and real estate.

For the Stock Market channel:

In general, the prospect of Vietnam’s stock market is still positive, as GDP growth in 2023, despite a decrease, is still forecast to be at a high level compared to the world, and inflation continues to be under control. This correction of the market also made the valuation of stocks in the market return to an attractive level for investors, especially long-term investors (the P/E of VNIndex in November decreased. down about 10 times – a level the market has only touched twice in 2008 and 2012).

In addition, violations such as market manipulation are handled to help the market become healthier. As a result, the current equity market may be suitable for longer-term, higher-risk, value-for-money investors. The stock index (VNIndex) will likely recover slightly, increasing by about 10-15% in 2023.

Regarding the bond market, the issuance of Decree 65/2022/ND-CP partly helps the market become safer and more sustainable, but also needs a more appropriate roadmap. In addition, in 2022, regulatory agencies have drastically handled violations related to corporate bond issuance (such as the case of Tan Hoang Minh and Van Thinh Phat…), thereby helping the market develop sustainably. more stable in the long run. However, because Decree 65 has tightened the private issuance of corporate bonds, while the issuance to the public is quite expensive in terms of time and effort, the issuance of corporate bonds has declined sharply (from October 2022, there were more than 10 trillion dongs of newly issued corporate bonds, while it was 326 trillion dongs in the first 9 months). In addition, regulations on professional securities investors are stricter, reducing the number of individual investors who can buy corporate bonds individually. To solve the current and next year’s difficulties, it is expected that Decree 65 will be revised in a more open direction, which will facilitate the recovery of the corporate bond market in the next 1-2 years. many risks, not suitable for most individuals, and unprofessional investors.

For the real estate market channel:

Experts said that the current market’s difficulties stem from the crisis of confidence due to the impact of the cases of Tan Hoang Minh, FLC, and Van Thinh Phat. In addition, the fact that real estate prices have increased too high and people cannot find credible sources will also reduce the volume of real estate transactions from the third quarter of 2022. However, with a relatively positive economic development outlook, along with the drastic handling of violations by regulatory agencies, the real estate market is expected to recover from the third or fourth quarter of this year. 2023. The main reason here is: (i) central banks around the world will still raise interest rates in the first quarter and second quarter of 2023, causing interest rates of Vietnamese banks to remain high in 2023; (ii) market demand, especially in segments such as residential real estate, industrial parks...; (iii) the cases of violation and the issue of corporate bond maturity are resolved.

For gold market channel:

In the context of economic uncertainty and risk, gold investment will become more attractive to investors because of its safety and stability. However, as mentioned above, the profitability is only average and the market liquidity is moderate due to the Government and the State Bank’s steadfast policy of stabilizing the gold market and reducing the "goldenization" in the economy. 

Conclusion: Divided by risk appetite from low to high, savings and gold deposit channels are still considered safe, especially savings channels are still attractive to many investors in the context of mobilizing interest rates. forecast to remain at a high level in 2023. Real estate and securities may continue to be an attractive investment channel, but with a higher level of risk. Investors should decide according to their risk appetite, financial capacity, and level of knowledge and experience.

2023 is considered a challenging year for the Vietnamese economy. In addition to the general fluctuations of the international market, the punishment of economic violations helps to make the investment environment more and more healthy. Indochina Holdings Trade Promotion Investment Joint Stock Company would like to introduce investment consulting services. With a team of dedicated and friendly consultants, we are ready to give the right direction to the aspirations of your business.

Source: Collector