[NEWS] - What is the picture of fertilizer import and export in 2022 and what prospects for 2023?

In 2022, Vietnam’s fertilizer exports will reach more than 1 billion USD. But the export situation of 2023 will likely be difficult in terms of quantity and price.

Vietnam’s fertilizer exports reach more than 1 billion USD in 2022

Based on the fertilizer import and export report in 2022, last year because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, prices and supply will be strongly affected. The global supply of fertilizers was initially weakened and gradually became more severe. Soaring energy prices under the impact of supply have forced many industries in Europe and including fertilizer firms to scale down production, even to suspend operations. Under the decline of export supply from the market, fertilizer prices in the world have fluctuated in price. In the context of high fertilizer prices, fertilizer demand in 2022 is estimated by the World Fertilizer Association (IFA) to decrease by 3.8% and reach more than 193 million tons compared to the same period in 2021 - a large decrease since the 2008 financial crisis.

In 2022, Vietnam exported about 1.75 million tons of fertilizer, with a turnover of about 1.09 billion USD, an increase of 29.4% in volume, and an increase of about 95.9% in turnover over the same period last year 2021. The average price increased by 34% to about USD 625.2/ton over the same period last year. The fertilizer export market of Vietnam in 2022 is mainly countries in Southeast Asia. Which, Cambodia is the traditional and largest market accounting for about 27.63% of the total fertilizer export, followed by Singapore, Malaysia, Korea, Philippines, Myanmar, Laos...

Vietnam’s exports to Cambodia have many advantages because of the preferential legal framework for bilateral trade with the Border Trade Agreement, the Agreement to promote bilateral trade... Moreover, in terms of distance closer to transporting goods, the needs and tastes of Cambodian people are similar to those of Vietnam. These are extremely favorable factors for Vietnamese fertilizers to be warmly received in the Cambodian market.

In 2022, the amount of fertilizer exported to the market will reach about 483.8 thousand tons, with a turnover of 254.8 million USD, a decrease of 11.23% in volume, and an increase of 21.81% in turnover compared to 2021.

Some big names exporting fertilizers to the Cambodian market can be mentioned as Ca Mau fertilizer, Phu My fertilizer, Binh Dien fertilizer, and Southern fertilizer...

Besides the traditional market like Cambodia, our country also exports dung to other markets such as Thailand (1.62%), Japan (1.35%), Mozambique (0.44%), Taiwan Loan (0.4%), Angola (0.05%), … These markets account for about 33.85% of the market share.

Is the fertilizer export picture in 2023 positive?

In 2023, the picture of fertilizer exports recorded a gloomier situation than in 2022 with a sharp decline in fertilizer prices, especially urea prices. Compared to the same period in January 2022, the price of urea has decreased by 60% of its value. Because fertilizer prices plummeted compared to the same period last year, the psychology of buyers and agents both imported goods in moderation, and now prices continue to drop. The export of fertilizers was also heavily affected, with large inventories.

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, in the first two months of the year, the whole country exported nearly 278,274 tons of fertilizers of all kinds, equivalent to about 128.97 million USD, the average price was about 463.5 USD/ton, down. equivalent to 21% in volume, down about 46.6% in turnover and 32.4% in price compared to the first 2 months of 2022.

In February 2023 exported 151,045 tons of fertilizers of all kinds,   priced at 430.6 USD/ton, up about 18.7% in volume and reached 65.04 million USD, up 1.8% in turnover but down 14 .3% in price compared to January 2023. Compared to February 2022 also increased by 17.9% in volume, but turnover decreased by 8.8% and price decreased by 22.7%. Compared with February 2022, it also tends to increase by about 17.9% in volume but in value, it decreases by 8.8% and 22.7% in price.

At the same time, in another development, 2023 is considered to be the year the fertilizer industry does not have too many advantages like last year. Fertilizer prices tend to decrease sharply over the same period, many units also need to adjust revenue and profit levels.

As recorded at the beginning of 2023, fertilizer prices, especially urea prices, had a sharp decrease over the same period. According to aggregated data, in early February 2023, the price of urea futures contract fell by only $382/ton, which is the lowest price since the beginning of May 2021 and down about 43.4% compared to the same period in 2022.

In mid-February 2023, the Middle East urea price averaged from the beginning of the year to the end of April about $411/ton, 29% lower than the average for the fourth quarter of 2022.

Many businesses also shared that by the end of April, the price of urea may drop to the bottom. Also in the recent fertilizer industry report, it is forecast that the price of urea may continue to decline shortly because exports from Russia and China will show signs of recovery, input costs for urea production (coal and natural gas) decreased and demand for urea weakened.

Currently, according to analysts, this year’s fertilizer industry will be less positive when the Chinese side opens up the market and creates competitive pressure for domestic enterprises and goods from this country.

Through the article, we can see that the export turnover of the fertilizer industry is on a downward trend and will decline sharply shortly. Indochina Holding acts as a bridge between domestic and foreign enterprises. We will accompany and support small and medium enterprises to export to developed countries in the world, to contribute somewhat to Vietnam’s export turnover in the future.

Yen Dang (Collection source)